Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Astros vs Mariners – Tuesday April 08, 2025

Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the Houston Astros on April 8, 2025, in a key American League West matchup as both teams look to improve on slow starts. Currently, the Mariners sit at 4-7, while the Astros are slightly better at 4-6. Despite both teams struggling, Seattle managed a narrow victory of 4-3 against Houston in yesterday’s game, giving them a much-needed boost.

Luis Castillo is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, and he has shown promise early this season with a solid 3.00 ERA across two starts. Although Castillo’s 4.62 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, his ability to pitch deep into games—projected at 6.2 innings today—gives Seattle a chance to capitalize on his talent. The Mariners’ offense ranks 19th in MLB, but they are 9th in home runs, which could play a crucial role against Astros starter Framber Valdez.

Valdez, who has been inconsistent, carries a 3.75 ERA in his own two starts but struggled recently, allowing 5 earned runs in his last outing. His high walk rate of 12.2% could be a factor against the Mariners, who rank 3rd in MLB in drawing walks. This matchup may favor the Mariners if they can remain patient and capitalize on Valdez’s control issues.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a tight contest, reflecting the close nature of these teams’ early-season performances. The Mariners are slightly favored at -135, suggesting a belief in their ability to build on yesterday’s success against a struggling Astros lineup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Framber Valdez has used his curveball 5.7% more often this season (37.1%) than he did last year (31.4%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Houston’s 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #27 group of hitters in MLB since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Luis Castillo’s 2157.1-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  J.P. Crawford’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.5-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 128 games (+11.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 153 games (+16.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 62% ROI)