
Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-210
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Yankees sit at a record of 63-56, showcasing an above-average season, while the Twins, at 56-62, are struggling with a below-average performance. The Yankees have already bested the Twins 6-2 in their previous matchup, which adds some momentum into this next game.
Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for New York, and despite a rocky outing in his last start where he allowed 6 hits and 4 walks, he managed to limit the damage to just 2 earned runs. Rodon’s impressive season statistics include an 11-7 record and a 3.35 ERA, placing him among the top 20% of pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. His ability to strike out 6.6 batters per game adds to his appeal, especially against a Twins lineup that has consistently struggled against left-handed pitching.
Conversely, the Twins will counter with Travis Adams, who has had a rough season. With a 6.86 ERA and a tendency to give up fly balls, he will face a potent Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB for home runs and 3rd overall. This matchup could spell trouble for Adams, especially considering that the Yankees’ power-hitting could convert his mistakes into home runs.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Yankees listed as significant favorites with a moneyline of -210, the betting odds reflect a strong belief in New York’s ability to capitalize on their home field advantage and offensive firepower. The Yankees’ offensive depth, combined with Rodon’s solid metrics, suggests that they are well-positioned to secure another victory against a struggling Twins squad.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Ryan Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Fitzgerald in the 6th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Carlos Rodon’s 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2-mph decrease from last year’s 95.6-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-210)The best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)