Discover the Twins vs Astros Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday, June 14th, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros

On June 14, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. The Astros currently sit at 39-30, enjoying a solid season, while the Twins are just above .500 at 36-33. The stakes are high in this matchup, especially after the Astros dominated the Twins 10-3 in their last encounter on June 13.

Starting for the Astros is Hunter Brown, who carries an impressive 8-3 record and a stellar ERA of 1.82 this season, ranking him as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB. Brown’s recent form shows promise; in his last start on June 7, he allowed just one earned run over five innings, striking out nine. However, his projections suggest he may be due for a regression, as he’s expected to allow 2.1 earned runs today.

Opposing him is Joe Ryan, with a 7-2 record and a 2.96 ERA, placing him as the 16th best starting pitcher. Ryan also pitched well in his last outing, giving up two earned runs in five innings with six strikeouts. The projections indicate he will go slightly deeper into the game, averaging 6.1 innings, and is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Astros rank 14th overall, with a particularly strong batting average of .265, while the Twins rank 15th. Both teams have been inconsistent in terms of power, with the Astros sitting 20th in home runs and the Twins at 18th. Given that the Astros are favored at -115, there’s potential for them to outperform their implied team total of 3.54 runs, especially considering their recent offensive explosion.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Joe Ryan and his 41.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme groundball bats like Byron Buxton generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Hunter Brown’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (60.1 vs. 53% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)