Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
(-105/-115)-145
As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on August 16, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum in this Interleague matchup. The Reds, currently 60-61, are having an average season, while the Royals sit at 66-55, enjoying an above-average campaign. In their last game, the Reds showcased a strong performance, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2, which could provide a much-needed boost as they face off against a solid Royals lineup.
The matchup on the mound features Nick Martinez for the Reds and Michael Lorenzen for the Royals. Martinez, ranked 88th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a respectable season with a 3.16 ERA and a win/loss record of 6-5. In his last start on August 10, he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing no earned runs while striking out seven batters. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season.
Conversely, Lorenzen has struggled, ranking among the lowest in the league for starting pitchers. His 3.79 ERA is decent, but a 5.03 xFIP indicates he may be due for regression. He pitched just four innings in his last start, giving up three earned runs.
Offensively, the Reds rank 16th overall in MLB, but their batting average of .227 ranks 27th, indicating struggles at the plate. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league. The Royals, on the other hand, boast a more balanced offense, ranking 12th overall and 11th in batting average.
With the projections indicating a close contest, the Reds hold a slight edge in win probability. Their recent success combined with Martinez’s strong outing could be key factors in securing a victory against the Royals.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Michael Lorenzen’s sinker percentage has increased by 9.5% from last year to this one (11.8% to 21.3%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-145)The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 24.9% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+145)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 109 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+9.10 Units / 228% ROI)