Kansas City Royals
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-110
On June 22, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Kansas City Royals at Petco Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are closely matched, with the Padres entering with a record of 41-35, while the Royals sit at 38-39. The Padres are having an above-average season, and despite their recent struggles, they have a strong bullpen rated 2nd best in MLB. In their last outing, the Padres fell short against the Royals, raising the stakes for this crucial matchup.
The projected starters offer an intriguing contrast. Randy Vasquez, who has a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.70, will take the mound for San Diego. While his ERA is solid, his xFIP of 5.62 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season and may struggle against the Royals’ lineup, which has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could favor Vasquez, who is known for his low strikeout rate.
On the other side, Seth Lugo, with a record of 4-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.05, is also projected to pitch a solid game. Lugo has shown consistency this season, but he could face challenges from a Padres offense that ranks 19th overall but has been inconsistent in generating power, ranking 27th in home runs.
With both teams’ offenses underperforming, especially the Royals at 27th in the league, it could be a low-scoring affair. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which reflects the uncertainty surrounding both lineups. Betting markets favor a close game, with each team’s moneyline set at -110, implying an evenly matched contest. Given their stronger overall pitching and the dynamics of the matchup, the Padres may have an edge in claiming victory today.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Seth Lugo’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 24th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Kansas City Royals batters jointly grade out 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Randy Vasquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Over the last 14 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+16.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)