Discover the Reds vs Tigers Preview and Prediction – Friday June 13, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on June 13, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Tigers, standing at 45-25, are enjoying a strong season and rank 2nd in MLB Power Rankings for their elite bullpen. The Reds, meanwhile, sit at 35-34, having experienced an average season thus far. In their most recent outings, the Tigers won decisively on June 12, defeating their opponents 4-1, while the Reds suffered a heavy loss, falling 11-2.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Brant Hurter, a left-handed pitcher whose recent form has raised concerns. Hurter’s last outing on June 10 was abbreviated, going just 3 innings but allowing only 1 earned run. However, his projections for today’s game indicate troubling numbers—averaging just 3.0 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 hits and 1.0 earned runs, which could spell trouble against the Reds’ offense.

Opposing him is Nick Martinez, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Martinez has been moderately effective this season, with a 3.70 ERA. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck, raising questions about his ability to sustain this performance. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings but has struggled with allowing 5.0 hits and 1.2 walks, which could open the door for the Tigers’ potent offense.

Detroit’s offense ranks 9th best in MLB and boasts power with a solid home run total this season, while Cincinnati ranks 11th. With the Tigers’ strong overall team performance and a favorable pitching matchup, they look to capitalize on the Reds’ recent struggles and maintain their winning momentum.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brant Hurter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Keider Montero has gone to his sinker 13.5% more often this season (21.2%) than he did last season (7.7%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Javier Baez has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.90 Units / 52% ROI)