Discover the Red Sox vs Royals Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Tuesday, August 6th, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox in a crucial matchup on August 6, 2024. Both teams are looking to solidify their positions as the regular season nears its conclusion. The Royals, with a record of 63-51, are solidly in the race for postseason contention, while the Red Sox sit at 60-51, in good form but outside of the top pack.

In their last outing, the Royals edged out the Red Sox 5-4 in a thrilling contest, and they’ll look to build on that momentum as they approach the second game of this series. Seth Lugo is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, boasting an impressive Win/Loss record of 13-5 and a stellar ERA of 2.57 this season, ranking him as the 83rd best pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 3.80 suggests he may have had a bit of fortune this year.

On the other side, Brayan Bello will get the call for Boston. He has had a challenging season, holding a record of 10-5 with an ERA of 5.13. Bello’s xFIP of 3.73 indicates he might be a victim of bad luck, so he could be due for a positive turnaround.

The matchup also presents an intriguing contrast in offensive prowess. The Red Sox’s offense ranks 3rd in MLB this season, while the Royals sit at 12th. Kansas City will look to capitalize on their 8th rank in stolen bases as they seek to pressure Bello early. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the expected offensive fireworks.

The Royals have an implied team total of 4.76 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers favor their chances against the Red Sox, who have an average implied total of 4.24 runs for the contest. With both teams needing a win, it promises to be an exciting game at Kauffman Stadium.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph grades out in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.314 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .333 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
  Compared to the average starter, Seth Lugo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.3 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 77.8-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals batters as a unit rank among the best in baseball this year (4th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)