Discover the Rangers vs Giants Preview and Prediction – Saturday April 26, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the Texas Rangers at Oracle Park on April 26, 2025, both teams come off noteworthy performances in their last game, with the Giants losing 2-0 and the Rangers pulling off the same score in their favor. Although the Giants stand at 17-10 and the Rangers at 15-11 this season, both teams are experiencing solid campaigns.

The Giants, projected to start left-hander Robbie Ray, have seen him post a 3-0 record in five starts, albeit with a less-than-ideal xFIP of 5.06, suggesting he may have been fortunate so far. Against a Rangers offense that ranks 27th in MLB and struggles with patience, Ray might find some success despite his high walk rate of 16.8%. Conversely, Tyler Mahle is expected to take the mound for Texas. With a sparkling 0.68 ERA and 3-0 record himself, Mahle’s advanced projections indicate he could face challenges against a Giants lineup known for drawing walks.

The Giants’ offense has averaged a middle-of-the-pack position in several metrics, including ranking 18th overall and 22nd in batting average. The Rangers’ lineup, while powerful in home runs (10th in MLB), is hindered by their overall inefficiency at the plate. Consequently, San Francisco’s superior bullpen ranks 3rd in MLB may play a pivotal role, especially if the game remains tight late.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs and the Giants at a -135 moneyline, there appears to be value for bettors considering the Giants could outperform their implied probabilities, especially against a struggling Rangers lineup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tyler Mahle’s high usage rate of his fastball (53.3% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Typically, bats like Kyle Higashioka who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Robbie Ray’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (92.9 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco’s 15.4° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball this year: #7 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Josh Jung has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+9.50 Units / 136% ROI)