Discover the Padres vs Braves Preview and Prediction – Saturday May 24, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will look to bounce back against the San Diego Padres after a narrow 2-1 defeat in their last game on May 23, 2025. Currently, the Braves sit at 4th place in the National League East with a record of 24-26, while the Padres, having won their last contest, hold a solid 2nd place in the National League West with a 28-21 record.

In this matchup, the Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has struggled this season with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.01. Despite his below-average performance, Holmes showed promise in his last start on May 17, going 6 innings and allowing only 2 earned runs. However, his advanced metrics indicate he has been lucky this year, with a 5.21 FIP suggesting potential regression. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs.

On the other side, Sean Reynolds will take the mound for the Padres. Reynolds has had a rough season, with an ERA of 6.43. While his xFIP suggests he could perform better, his projected short outing of 1.3 innings today could put significant pressure on a Padres bullpen that ranks 9th in MLB.

Offensively, both teams are relatively close, with the Braves ranking 14th in MLB and the Padres slightly ahead at 13th. However, the Braves’ best hitter is currently on a hot streak, boasting a .429 batting average and a 1.435 OPS over the last week, which could be pivotal in providing the offensive support Holmes needs.

Given the Braves’ strong implied team total of 4.82 runs, they are favored in this contest. With a decent performance from Holmes and their best hitter continuing to excel, Atlanta could very well turn the tide in this series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Sean Reynolds will “start” for San Diego Padres in today’s matchup but will function as an opener and may not go more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brandon Lockridge are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The San Diego Padres (18.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone batting order of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Grant Holmes’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (59.5% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves bats as a unit have been among the best in the majors this year (6th-) when it comes to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 49 games (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)