Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
(-120/+100)-225
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 27, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Yankees, sitting at 92-68, are enjoying a strong season and are firmly in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with a record of 75-85, have struggled throughout the year and are looking to finish on a positive note. In their last meeting, the Yankees secured a convincing victory, further solidifying their dominance over the Orioles.
On the mound, the Yankees are set to start Cam Schlitter, who has had an above-average season, ranking as the 90th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. With a solid ERA of 3.27 and a high strikeout rate of 27.0%, Schlitter presents a challenge for the Orioles, who rank 4th in MLB for most strikeouts. However, it’s worth noting that his xFIP of 3.79 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, hinting at potential regression.
Tomoyuki Sugano, the Orioles’ starter, has had a rough year, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. His ERA sits at 4.54, and projections indicate he could struggle against the Yankees’ potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Yankees have been particularly impressive, leading the league in home runs and boasting a .400 batting average from their best hitter over the last week.
With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Yankees favored with a moneyline of -225, the betting landscape heavily favors New York. The Yankees’ implied team total of 5.05 runs underscores their offensive firepower, while the Orioles are projected for only 3.45 runs. In this matchup, the Yankees’ strengths—particularly their high strikeout offense against Sugano—are likely to play a pivotal role as they aim to maintain their winning momentum.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tomoyuki Sugano to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (11th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+255/-360)Coby Mayo has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 78-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Baltimore Orioles hitters jointly have been one of the best in baseball this year (8th-) as it relates to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Yankees Insights
- Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Cameron Schlittler’s high usage percentage of his fastball (62% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.413) suggests that Ben Rice has suffered from bad luck this year with his .355 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.