Discover the Nationals vs Rockies Preview and Prediction – Saturday April 19, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Washington Nationals on April 19, 2025, in the opening game of a pivotal series for both struggling teams. The Rockies enter the matchup with a 3-15 record this season, notably coming off a narrow 8-7 loss. Meanwhile, the Nationals sit at 7-12, having just suffered a shutout loss at 1-0 in their last outing.

Starting for Colorado is Chase Dollander, a right-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season with a 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 5.06. However, his xFIP of 3.29 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and might have better performances ahead. Dollander has showcased his strikeout ability with a K% of 29.6, which could play a crucial role against a Nationals lineup that doesn’t strike out often, ranking 5th least in the league.

On the mound for Washington is MacKenzie Gore, projected to pitch 5.3 innings on average today. Gore has been solid with a 1-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.52. His strikeout rate is even higher at 33.7%, indicating he could exploit the Rockies’ high strikeout tendencies, as they rank 2nd most in the league in that regard.

Offensively, the Rockies have struggled mightily, ranking 26th overall and 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Nationals rank 22nd, but their 8th best ranking in stolen bases offers them a different dimension. The high Game Total of 9.5 runs reflects expectations of a competitive matchup, with betting markets leaning slightly toward the Nationals at -135.

With implied team totals significantly favoring Washington at 5.02 runs against Colorado’s 4.48, this contest presents an opportunity for the Nationals to solidify their standing while the Rockies seek to turn their season around.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph drop off from last season’s 95.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  This season, James Wood has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.7 mph compared to last year’s 96.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Typically, hitters like Mickey Moniak who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as MacKenzie Gore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .292 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+5.20 Units / 87% ROI)