Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
(-115/-105)-110
On April 11, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of their series. This matchup is crucial, as both teams are struggling early in the season. The Marlins sit at 6-6, while the Nationals are just behind at 5-7, putting them in a position where both are looking to gain momentum. In their latest outings, the Marlins secured a 5-0 shutout victory, showcasing their pitching prowess, while the Nationals fell short in a close 6-5 loss.
The Marlins will rely on right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera, whose advanced stats suggest he’s an average starter ranked 105th among approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. Cabrera’s projections indicate he could struggle with his innings, averaging just 4.0 frames, but he does project to allow only 1.7 earned runs. However, his 3.2 hits and 1.8 walks allowed suggest some concerns. Cabrera’s last start on September 25, 2024, saw him pitch well, going 5 innings with only 1 earned run.
For the Nationals, lefty Mitchell Parker is set to take the mound. Although he boasts an impressive ERA of 0.73 over two starts this season and holds a perfect 2-0 record, his underlying metrics, specifically a 5.10 xFIP, imply he may have been fortunate thus far. With projections suggesting he will pitch about 5.3 innings but allow 2.9 earned runs, his luck may soon run out against a Marlins lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.
With both teams having below-average bullpens—ranked 30th for the Marlins and 28th for the Nationals—this game could hinge on the starters’ ability to go deeper into the game. Bettors should keep an eye on the projections, which suggest a competitive game with a total set at 8.0 runs and both teams pegged at an average implied team total of 4.00 runs. Given the Marlins’ slightly better overall performance this season, they may offer a more appealing option for sports bettors looking to capitalize on this matchup.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)James Wood has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 10.7% rate last year to 23.1% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)James Wood has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Edward Cabrera’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (63.4% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Xavier Edwards’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86-mph mark last season has lowered to 81-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Graham Pauley, Derek Hill, Kyle Stowers).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 81 games at home (+26.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Eric Wagaman has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)