Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)+120
As the San Diego Padres gear up to host the Seattle Mariners on July 9, 2024, at Petco Park, fans can expect an intriguing contest between two teams having above-average seasons. The Padres, currently with a 49-45 record, will face the Mariners, who stand at 49-43. This interleague matchup marks the first game in the series, and both teams aim to start strong in their pursuit of playoff berths.
On the mound, the Padres will start Adam Mazur. Despite his struggles this season, evidenced by a 7.52 ERA and an ERA ranking him at #232 among approximately 350 pitchers, there is hope for Mazur. His 6.12 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and might perform better going forward. Mazur has a below-average strikeout rate of 12.3%, but he could find success against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts. In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert, who boasts an excellent 2.91 ERA and is ranked #48 among starting pitchers. However, Gilbert’s 3.54 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate.
Offensively, the Padres have a significant advantage. They rank 10th in MLB in offensive power and hold the top spot in team batting average. Players like Jurickson Profar, who has been on fire in the last week with a .333 batting average, 1.226 OPS, and three home runs, will be crucial. The Mariners, on the other hand, are struggling offensively, ranking 28th overall and dead last in team batting average. Mitch Garver has been their best hitter recently, with a .263 average and two home runs over the past week.
The bullpens offer another area where the Padres have the upper hand, ranking 9th in the league compared to the Mariners’ 27th position. This disparity could be decisive in close contests, particularly given Mazur’s projected 4.8 innings per start versus Gilbert’s 5.7.
Betting odds currently favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% win probability, while the Padres stand at +120 with a 44% win probability. Despite the odds, the Padres’ strong lineup and the Mariners’ high strikeout rate present a compelling case for an upset. The game’s total runs are set at 8.0, and with both teams’ current form, this average projection seems fitting.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 2H MoneylineThe Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 56% ROI)