Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
(-115/-105)-120
On May 23, 2025, the Houston Astros will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park in what shapes up to be a crucial American League West matchup. The Astros, currently sitting at 26-24, are having an above-average season, while the Mariners have a better standing with a record of 28-21, indicating their strong performance thus far. In their previous game, the Mariners came out on top, so the Astros will be looking for revenge in this second game of the series.
The pitching matchup features Ryan Gusto for the Astros and Emerson Hancock for the Mariners. Gusto, despite being ranked as the 180th best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown flashes of better performance, indicated by his 4.04 SIERA, suggesting he may have been unlucky this season. However, he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today, which isn’t ideal for a starter. On the other hand, Hancock has struggled, holding a poor 6.21 ERA and posting a 1-2 record this year.
Offensively, the Astros rank 18th overall in MLB, which has been a point of concern, particularly given their low ranking in home runs (21st) and stolen bases (27th). Meanwhile, the Mariners boast a solid 10th place ranking in MLB offensively, with their power manifesting in their 6th most home runs this season. Gusto’s tendency to allow fly balls may be exploited by the Mariners’ powerful lineup, giving them a potential edge.
Betting markets currently give the Astros a moneyline of -120, reflecting a close contest. With Gusto’s potential for improvement and the Astros’ strong bullpen ranked 9th overall, there is a narrative suggesting they could outperform expectations despite their recent form.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Emerson Hancock’s sinker utilization has increased by 9.8% from last year to this one (29.8% to 39.6%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Among all starting pitchers, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2438 rpm is in the 85th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jeremy Pena has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 20.2% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.0 (+125)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+7.02 Units / 28% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)