Discover the Guardians vs Blue Jays Preview and Prediction – Saturday May 03, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 3, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre in what promises to be a compelling American League matchup. The Blue Jays come into this game after a victory over the Guardians yesterday, winning by a score of 5-3. This second game of the series will feature two right-handed pitchers, Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays and Gavin Williams for the Guardians.

In the standings, the Blue Jays sit at 16-16, while the Guardians have a solid record of 18-14. Despite Toronto’s average season thus far, they will rely on Gausman, who has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a 4.50 ERA but a lower expected ERA of 3.86. His ability to project 6.0 innings while allowing only 2.5 earned runs is a promising sign for the Blue Jays, especially considering their bullpen ranks 8th best in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the other side, Gavin Williams has also been inconsistent, holding a 5.14 ERA this season, which is below par. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today but has struggled with walks, averaging 1.9 per start. With the Guardians’ offense ranking 21st best in MLB, they face an uphill battle against Gausman.

While both teams have offensive struggles, the Blue Jays’ projected run total is 4.11, compared to the Guardians’ low 3.39. Toronto’s best hitter has shown recent form, producing 2 home runs and a 1.362 OPS over the last week, which could give the Blue Jays the edge they need to capitalize on their favorite status in this matchup. With Gausman on the mound and a favorable bullpen behind him, Toronto looks to build momentum following their recent win.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Gavin Williams has relied on his change-up 5% less often this season (0.4%) than he did last season (5.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Kyle Manzardo who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kevin Gausman.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Daniel Schneemann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  In his previous outing, Kevin Gausman was in good form and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.82 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 54% ROI)