San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-150
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with records of 64-64 and 65-64, respectively. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and both squads are looking to gain momentum after recent losses. The Mariners fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-4 on August 21, while the Giants were defeated 6-2 by the Chicago White Sox.
On the mound, the Mariners are set to start Luis Castillo, ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite a Win/Loss record of 10-12 this year, Castillo boasts a solid ERA of 3.51 and projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs on average today, showcasing his elite potential. However, his tendency to allow 4.4 hits and 1.6 walks per game raises concerns. In contrast, the Giants will counter with Hayden Birdsong, whose 5.01 ERA and 4.15 xFIP indicate a struggle this season, although he has shown flashes of better performance.
The Mariners’ offense, ranked 28th overall, has been a weak point, particularly in team batting average where they sit at 30th. Yet, they have a solid power display with a 14th ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Giants boast a slightly better offensive ranking at 14th, but their power output is concerning, ranking 23rd in home runs.
Interestingly, the projections suggest that the Mariners are undervalued as a betting favorite, with their win probability estimated at 61% by the leading MLB projection system. This aligns with their status as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -145. Given Castillo’s strong matchup against a Giants lineup that has struggled against high-strikeout pitchers, the Mariners may have the edge they need to turn their season around.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+130)The San Francisco Giants outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The San Francisco Giants have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Andrew Knapp, Grant McCray, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Dominic Canzone has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 9.2% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #4 squad in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 41 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)