San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-130
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants square off on July 25, 2024, for the fourth game of their series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, sitting at 61-42, are having a great season and lead the National League West. In contrast, the Giants are struggling with a 49-54 record. Despite the disparity in overall records, the Giants took the last game by a convincing 8-3 scoreline, defying the odds as significant underdogs.
Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers, while Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants. Kershaw, a lefty, has been solid this season but was rocked in his last outing, allowing six earned runs without recording an out. Despite this, he ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, demonstrating his quality. However, projections suggest he may struggle today, with a poor forecast for hits and walks allowed.
On the other hand, Webb is ranked 11th among starting pitchers and has been a workhorse for the Giants, starting 21 games with a 3.59 ERA. However, his underlying metrics present a mixed bag: a 4.28 xERA suggests some luck, while a 2.92 FIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky. Webb’s ability to induce ground balls (58% GB rate) could be crucial against the Dodgers’ powerful lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs. Webb’s excellent control could also neutralize the Dodgers’ patient approach at the plate, as they rank 2nd in walks drawn.
Offensively, the Dodgers are a powerhouse, boasting the 1st best lineup in MLB and led by Shohei Ohtani, who has a .310 batting average and 30 home runs. Gavin Lux has been hot recently, hitting .412 with two home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is more middling, ranking 15th overall, with Matt Chapman being their standout performer.
Both bullpens will play a role, with the Giants’ relief corps ranked 2nd and the Dodgers’ bullpen sitting at 13th. The betting markets have the Dodgers as slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 53% chance of winning. Expect a closely contested game with the Dodgers looking to bounce back and maintain their divisional lead.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Logan Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Tyler Fitzgerald is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)In today’s game, Heliot Ramos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.1% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Clayton Kershaw meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Teoscar Hernandez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .335 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+315/-460)Matt Chapman has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 32% ROI)