Discover the Game Time for Dodgers vs Padres – Tuesday July 30, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to kick off a pivotal National League West series on July 30, 2024, at Petco Park. This matchup features two teams with strong records; the Padres are currently 57-51, while the Dodgers boast a 63-44 record. Both teams are contending for playoff positions, making this series particularly significant.

San Diego will have Matt Waldron on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.64###101, his xFIP of 4.23 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate this year and may regress. Waldron’s 6-9 record and status as the 157th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate he’s had his struggles. However, the Padres’ bullpen, ranked 6th best, could provide solid support.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow, an elite right-hander ranked 8th among MLB starting pitchers. Glasnow’s 3.47 ERA is already impressive, but his 2.60 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform even better going forward. His 8-6 record doesn’t fully capture his potential dominance. The Dodgers’ bullpen, ranked 4th best, adds another layer of challenge for the Padres.

Offensively, the Dodgers hold the upper hand, ranking as the 1st best offense in MLB. They are particularly powerful, ranking 3rd in home runs. This could spell trouble for Waldron, a high-flyball pitcher, as the Dodgers could capitalize on his tendency to allow flyballs. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense is no slouch, ranking 11th overall and 1st in team batting average. Their ability to avoid strikeouts (#1 least strikeouts) could neutralize Glasnow’s high-strikeout rate.

Over the last week, Xander Bogaerts has been red-hot for the Padres, batting .583 with a 1.532 OPS. For the Dodgers, Gavin Lux has been equally impressive, hitting .500 with a 1.432 OPS.

The Padres are currently the underdogs with a moneyline of +120, giving them an implied win probability of 44%. With their strong bullpen and hot hitters like Bogaerts, they could defy the odds and make this a competitive series opener. The Dodgers, favored with a moneyline of -140, have an implied win probability of 56%, backed by Glasnow’s elite pitching and a powerhouse offense.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Tyler Glasnow has recorded 18 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  In terms of his home runs, Andy Pages has had some very poor luck this year. His 13.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .325 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .339 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Matt Waldron must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 66.4% of the time, grading out in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jurickson Profar has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.7% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 61% ROI)