Discover the Game Time for Cardinals vs Twins – Friday August 23, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals prepare to clash on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins are enjoying a solid season with a record of 71-56, positioning them firmly in the playoff race, while the Cardinals sit at 63-64, battling to stay relevant in an average campaign. This matchup marks the beginning of a series, which could hold significant implications as the Twins push for postseason contention.

The Twins come off a recent performance where they delivered a strong showing, and they look to continue that momentum against a Cardinals team that has struggled offensively, ranking only 19th overall in the league. The projections suggest the Twins’ offense, ranked 6th in MLB, will put pressure on the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Minnesota’s best hitter over the last week, Ryan Jeffers, has been on fire, boasting a .455 batting average and leading the team with 3 home runs.

On the mound, the Twins are expected to send out David Festa, who has had a mixed season with a 4.96 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.59 suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve going forward. In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has been slightly better this season with a 4.07 ERA but has allowed high traffic on the bases with walks being a concern.

With the Twins as favorites with a current moneyline of -140, there’s an opportunity for them to capitalize on their advantageous matchup against a Cardinals offense that ranks poorly in power. As the teams gear up for this interleague showdown at Target Field, the Twins will aim to leverage their stronger lineup and Festa’s potential upside to secure a critical victory.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  In his previous outing, Andre Pallante was on point and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• As a team, St. Louis Cardinals batters have done well as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 4th-best in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  David Festa has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Trevor Larnach has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 96.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota has not been good at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (90.6 mph) ranks among the league’s worst: #25 in MLB this year.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 58 away games (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+8.05 Units / 81% ROI)