Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers, sitting at 86-74, are having a solid season and are looking to bolster their playoff aspirations as they host the struggling Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park on September 28, 2024. The Tigers are a big favorite in this American League Central matchup, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 63% chance of victory.
Detroit’s Brant Hurter, an average left-handed pitcher, is set to take the mound. Despite a 5-1 win/loss record and an impressive 2.61 ERA, his xFIP of 3.13 suggests he’s been fortunate this year. However, his ability to induce ground balls (56 GB%) could neutralize the powerless White Sox, who rank 30th in MLB with just 130 home runs.
On the other side, the White Sox are enduring a dismal campaign with a 39-121 record. Sean Burke, their right-handed starter, boasts an excellent 1.93 ERA over two starts but a higher xFIP of 3.36 indicates potential regression. Burke faces a Tigers offense that ranks 23rd in team batting average and 24th in home runs, making it pivotal for him to capitalize on their weaknesses.
The Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 8th, is a strong asset against the 27th-ranked White Sox bullpen. Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter has been a bright spot, hitting .385 with a 1.231 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Chicago’s Korey Lee has shown life with a .375 average and a 1.625 OPS in the same span.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Sean Burke faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under HitsLenyn Sosa is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Chicago White Sox – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineIn his last start, Brant Hurter was rolling and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under Total BasesKerry Carpenter has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+21.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under Team TotalThe Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)