Discover the Game Location for White Sox vs Tigers – Saturday, September 28, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox face off on September 28, 2024, at Comerica Park, there’s a significant disparity in their respective seasons. The Tigers, at 86-74, have been performing above average and are safely in the mix for the playoffs from the American League Central. Conversely, the White Sox, at 39-121, have endured a challenging season, placing them at the bottom of the standings.

In their last matchup, the Tigers asserted their dominance with a 4-1 victory over the White Sox on September 27. As they head into the second game of the series, Beau Brieske takes the mound for Detroit. Despite being ranked as the 127th best starting pitcher, Brieske’s 3.56 ERA suggests some reliability, although his 4.20 xFIP hints at potential regression. He’s projected to pitch only 1.3 innings, which isn’t promising, but the Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 8th in Power Rankings, could provide strong support.

For Chicago, Sean Burke will start, boasting an impressive 1.93 ERA over limited appearances this season. However, his xFIP of 3.36 suggests he’s been fortunate and could face challenges against Detroit’s lineup. Burke is expected to pitch 4.3 innings, which is below the standard for a starter, and the weak White Sox bullpen, ranked 27th, may struggle to contain the Tigers’ hitters.

From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers’ bats, although ranked 23rd for the season, are projected to be more productive than Chicago’s league-worst offense. The Tigers are expected to score around 4.59 runs, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. With a betting line favoring Detroit at -240, their implied win probability is 68%, slightly less optimistic than the 66% projected by advanced analytics. Nevertheless, Detroit is positioned as the strong favorite to continue their winning ways against the struggling White Sox.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Sean Burke faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Miguel Vargas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-210)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-210)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+21.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games at home (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)