Discover the Game Location for Twins vs Royals – Friday, September 6, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League Central. The Royals hold a record of 76-65, while the Twins are slightly ahead at 76-64. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are coming off victories, with the Royals defeating the Guardians 4-1 and the Twins edging out the Rays 4-3.

On the mound, the Royals will start Cole Ragans, who has been a standout this season, currently ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB. Ragans boasts a solid ERA of 3.46 and has struck out an average of 6.3 batters per game. However, he did struggle in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings. In contrast, the Twins will counter with Zebby Matthews, who has had a rough season with a 7.41 ERA and a 1-2 record. Despite his struggles, Matthews has a lower xFIP of 4.19, suggesting he may have been unlucky in his outings.

The projections favor the Royals significantly, predicting they will score around 4.29 runs, while the Twins are expected to struggle with just 3.66 runs. This aligns with the Royals’ offense, which ranks 12th overall in MLB and is led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been exceptional this season. The Twins’ offense, while ranked 8th in MLB, has seen some inconsistency, particularly with their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

With the Royals being a betting favorite at -140 and with a current implied team total of 4.01 runs, there appears to be value in backing them in this matchup, especially given Ragans’ elite status on the mound compared to Matthews’ struggles.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Zebby Matthews will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Wallner’s true offensive skill to be a .322, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .076 deviation between that figure and his actual .398 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Cole Ragans’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (94.9 mph) below where it was last year (96 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 58 games at home (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Willi Castro has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 62% ROI)