Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
(-115/-105)-150
As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 3, 2024, they find themselves in a tight playoff race, currently sporting a record of 57-52. Despite their efforts, the Rays are just a game behind at 55-54. This matchup marks the second game of the series, with the Astros having edged out the Rays 3-2 in a closely contested battle just yesterday.
Ronel Blanco, who is projected to start for the Astros, is an intriguing figure in this matchup. Despite ranking as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, he boasts an excellent ERA of 2.95 this season. However, the projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.18. On the other side, Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays, coming off a strong performance in his last start where he pitched 7 innings without allowing an earned run. While Littell is considered a below-average pitcher overall, he will look to build on that success against a potent Astros lineup.
When examining the offensive capabilities, the Astros rank 11th overall and 2nd in team batting average this season, indicating their strengths at the plate. Notably, Yordan Alvarez has been a pivotal player, contributing significantly to the team’s scoring efforts. In contrast, the Rays’ offense sits at 22nd overall and has struggled with only 97 home runs this season, making it tough for them to capitalize on Blanco’s high flyball rate.
With the projections favoring the Astros slightly at 54%, they seem to hold an edge in this matchup, especially given their offensive prowess against a Rays team that has been inconsistent at the plate. As the game approaches, bettors may find value in supporting the Astros, looking to build on their recent success.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Zack Littell’s change-up rate has jumped by 5.1% from last season to this one (18% to 23.1%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .284 rate is a good deal lower than his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Ronel Blanco’s 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.8-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jake Meyers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Jake Meyers has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 20.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 109 games (+21.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)Yainer Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.30 Units / 77% ROI)