Discover the Game Location for Nationals vs Brewers – Sunday, July 14, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals are set to face off on July 14, 2024, at American Family Field in what will be the third game of their series. The Brewers, currently holding a strong 54-42 record, have been enjoying a good season and sit comfortably in the standings. Conversely, the Nationals are struggling with a 44-52 record, reflecting a below-average season thus far.

Yesterday, the Nationals edged out the Brewers in a tight 6-5 contest, marking a crucial victory for Washington. Despite Milwaukee being the favorites with a closing Moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, the Nationals pulled off the upset with a Moneyline of +120. The Brewers will look to bounce back and reclaim their dominance in the series.

On the mound today for Milwaukee will be Colin Rea, a right-hander who, despite having a solid 8-3 record and a respectable 3.81 ERA, ranks as the #262 starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His peripheral stats, including a 4.58 xFIP, suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Rea is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.3 walks on average, with only 3.9 strikeouts.

Washington counters with Jake Irvin, another right-hander boasting a solid 7-7 record and an impressive 3.13 ERA. However, his 3.80 xFIP indicates he too has been lucky. Irvin is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.8 walks while striking out 4.6 batters.

The Brewers’ offense, ranked 10th in the league, features standout Willy Adames, who has been a key contributor with 50 runs, 63 RBIs, and 14 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense struggles, ranking 25th overall, despite CJ Abrams’ solid performance with a .269 batting average and 15 home runs.

Milwaukee’s bullpen, ranked 20th, will look to hold off a Nationals lineup that is adept at stealing bases but lacks power, ranking 29th in home runs. Washington’s bullpen, ranked 29th, remains a significant liability.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Brewers with a 56% win probability, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 57%. With the Brewers projected to score 5.04 runs and the Nationals 4.71, expect a high-scoring game with a Game Total set at 9.0 runs. Milwaukee’s ability to bounce back and capitalize on their offensive strengths will be key in securing a win today.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Jake Irvin has recorded 17.7 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams’s true offensive ability to be a .314, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .039 difference between that figure and his actual .353 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+130)
  The Washington Nationals projected offense projects as the 2nd-worst on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 96 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 92 games (+8.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)