New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-125/+105)-140
The Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) host the New York Mets (42-43) on July 5, 2024, at PNC Park, kicking off a National League series. Both teams are coming off tight losses on July 4, with the Pirates falling 3-2 to the Cardinals and the Mets losing 1-0 to the Nationals. The Pirates, who are having a below-average season, will look to rebound against a Mets team that’s hovering around .500 and in the midst of an average season.
The Pirates have a slight edge with Paul Skenes on the mound. Skenes, an elite right-hander ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts an impressive 2.06 ERA and a 4-0 record through 9 starts. Despite his favorable ERA, indicators like his 2.72 xERA suggest he might be due for some regression. Skenes is still projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.5 batters on average. His high groundball rate (48% GB%) could neutralize the Mets’ powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB with 109 home runs this season.
Opposing him is Luis Severino, whose 3.42 ERA and 5-2 record might look solid, but his 4.19 xFIP indicates some luck has been involved. Severino projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters on average. His low strikeout rate (18.5%) could play well against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts, but overall, Pittsburgh’s batting lineup is one of the weakest in baseball, ranking 28th in offensive Power Rankings.
The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 15th, while the Mets’ bullpen is 19th, indicating a slight edge for Pittsburgh in late-game situations. Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ best hitter this season, while Francisco Lindor leads the Mets, both providing some offensive spark for their respective teams.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Pirates as a big favorite with a 61% win probability, higher than their implied win probability of 56%. With Skenes on the mound and the projection favoring Pittsburgh, there might be value in backing the Pirates in this matchup.
New York Mets Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Among all starting pitchers, Luis Severino’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph grades out in the 88th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Francisco Lindor has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.7% seasonal rate to 22.9% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+120)The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)Paul Skenes has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a group grade out 10th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 8.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 61 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)