Discover the Game Location for D-Backs vs Red Sox – Friday, August 23, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a highly anticipated Interleague matchup at Fenway Park on August 23, 2024. Both teams find themselves in competitive positions this season, with the Red Sox at 67-59 and the Diamondbacks at 72-56. The stakes are high as the teams vie for playoff positioning; every game counts in August, especially for the Red Sox, who are aiming to secure a Wild Card spot.

In their most recent outings, the Red Sox secured a solid 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros, while the Diamondbacks edged past the Miami Marlins with a thrilling 10-8 win. The Red Sox offense has been impressive this season, ranking 3rd in MLB, underscoring their ability to put runs on the board. This potent offense will be facing Ryne Nelson, a pitcher who has struggled to generate strikeouts effectively this year, sitting at just a 19.3% K-rate.

On the mound for Boston is Brayan Bello, ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. Bello’s last start on August 17 was noteworthy; he went 6 innings allowing only 1 earned run, striking out 6 batters. Despite his ERA sitting at 4.80, his xFIP of 3.74 suggests he could perform even better moving forward. On the other hand, Ryne Nelson’s ERA of 4.35, while average, comes with a below-average performance in terms of expected outcomes, and he may struggle against a Red Sox lineup that thrives on high strikeout rates.

THE BAT X projects the Red Sox as slight favorites today, forecasting a high offensive output with an implied team total of 4.97 runs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are projected to score about 4.87 runs, indicating a potential for a high-scoring affair as reflected in the game’s total set at 9.5 runs. The matchup highlights the contrast between a potent Red Sox offense and a Diamondbacks pitching staff that may be vulnerable, setting the stage for an exhilarating game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Ryne Nelson projects to allow an average of 3.03 earned runs in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Joc Pederson has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has relied on his secondary offerings 14% more often this year (57.1%) than he did last season (43.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Triston Casas has been very fortunate this year. His .370 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .269.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 74 games (+20.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 93 games (+20.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+100/-130)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.65 Units / 81% ROI)