Discover the Cardinals vs Guardians Preview and Prediction – Saturday June 28, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians

On June 28, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Progressive Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Guardians enter this matchup with a record of 40-40, illustrating an average season thus far, while the Cardinals sit at 45-38, enjoying a stronger campaign. Both teams are looking to rebound after Cleveland narrowly lost to St. Louis in their previous game by a score of 5-4, where both teams showcased their offensive potential.

The Guardians are projected to start Slade Cecconi, who has had mixed results in his seven starts this year, showcasing a respectable 3.38 ERA but ranking as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. While Cecconi’s ERA suggests solid performance, his 3.99 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, making him a potential target for regression. He projects to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, though he does struggle with allowing hits.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has also had an inconsistent season. Mikolas boasts a 4.31 ERA, which is average, but his 3.75 FIP suggests he might improve if luck turns in his favor. His projections show he is likely to pitch about 5.2 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 25th in MLB, struggling to find their rhythm at the plate, while the Cardinals hold a middle-of-the-pack 15th position. With the Guardians’ moneyline set at -120, indicating a 52% implied win probability, they may be undervalued given their home-field advantage and the Cardinals’ recent inconsistency at the plate. Betting markets reflect a close matchup, and all eyes will be on whether Cleveland can capitalize on their pitching advantage to secure a much-needed victory.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Miles Mikolas’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Lars Nootbaar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 98.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable edge over groundball hitters, Slade Cecconi and his 38.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today’s matchup facing 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lane Thomas, Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)
  Willson Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 41% ROI)