Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-130
As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field on September 13, 2024, both teams are in a tight race for playoff positioning in the National League. The Brewers lead the Wild Card chase with a record of 84-62, while the Diamondbacks sit just behind them at 82-64, making this matchup crucial in the final stretch of the season.
In their last outings, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess by overpowering the Texas Rangers in a 14-4 victory on September 11, while the Brewers secured a 3-0 shutout against the San Francisco Giants on September 8. The Diamondbacks boast the 1st best offense in MLB this season, highlighted by their impressive 183 home runs, ranking 4th overall. This power-laden lineup will face off against Freddy Peralta, who, despite being ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher, has been prone to giving up fly balls (40 FB% this year), potentially playing into the hands of Arizona’s powerful hitters.
Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had a challenging season, evidenced by his 5.83 ERA and a 2-2 record over 6 starts. His last outing was uneventful, allowing 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. However, with a 5.14 xFIP, there’s an argument for better luck ahead. The projections suggest that Rodriguez may pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs.
With the Diamondbacks’ high implied team total of 4.40 runs and their offensive ranking, they hold a slight edge in this matchup. The leading MLB projection system anticipates a close game, projecting the Diamondbacks to score around 4.56 runs on average, which could be just enough to edge out the Brewers and secure a pivotal win in their playoff race.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- The 7.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #23 team in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 93 games (+28.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 141 games (+11.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.60 Units / 30% ROI)