Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
(-105/-115)-110
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on July 29, 2025, both teams come off notable performances from their previous matchup, where the Orioles triumphed with a score of 11-4. This game marks the second in a double-header, adding an extra layer of strategy as both teams may rest key players.
Currently, the Blue Jays boast a strong 63-44 record, positioning them as a competitive force in the American League East, while the Orioles sit at 48-58, struggling through a challenging season. The projections favor the Blue Jays, who rank as the 5th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling with the top batting average at .294. Meanwhile, the Orioles rank 21st in offense, reflecting their struggles to consistently generate runs.
On the mound, the Orioles will start Corbin Martin, who has had a rocky season with a 1.93 ERA despite being ranked 337th among starting pitchers, indicating he’s one of the least effective in MLB. His last outing saw him surrender 4 earned runs in just 4 innings, which raises concerns against a potent Blue Jays lineup. Conversely, Eric Lauer will take the hill for Toronto, coming off a complete game performance where he allowed only 1 earned run and is sporting an impressive 2.61 ERA this season.
With both teams set to bring their top hitters into this clash, the Orioles’ best offensive player has recently been on a tear, posting a .538 batting average over the last week. However, the Blue Jays’ top hitter has also excelled, achieving a .469 average in the same span. Given the high Game Total of 10.0 runs and the close moneyline odds of -110 for both teams, this matchup promises to be competitive, but trends suggest a favorable edge for Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under HitsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best batter in the game when estimating his batting average ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Corbin Martin – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Martin to throw 64 pitches today (2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Dylan Carlson – Over/Under Total BasesAs a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Eric Lauer today.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under Total BasesCedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+10.28 Units / 10% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 63 games (+19.20 Units / 24% ROI)