Detroit Tigers
Cincinnati Reds
(-105/-115)-135
The Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers, both struggling in their respective leagues, are set to clash on July 5, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. This interleague matchup sees the Reds (42-45) hosting the Tigers (39-48), with both teams coming off contrasting performances. The Reds are fresh off an upset victory against the Yankees, winning 8-4 as significant underdogs, while the Tigers were thrashed 12-3 by the Twins.
Cincinnati will send Carson Spiers to the mound, who, despite his 2-1 record and impressive 3.13 ERA, has been flagged by his 4.26 xFIP as a pitcher due for regression. Spiers has been effective in limited starts, but the projections are not optimistic about his outing, forecasting just 4.9 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, Detroit counters with Reese Olson, who has a 3.32 ERA over 16 starts but holds a disappointing 2-8 record. Olson is ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to Spiers’s 241st ranking.
Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The Reds rank 23rd in overall offense, 27th in batting average, and 20th in home runs, though they lead MLB in stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, boasting a .818 OPS with 15 home runs and 42 stolen bases. On the other hand, the Tigers rank 27th in offense, 25th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs, with Riley Greene leading the charge with a .846 OPS and 16 home runs.
The Reds bullpen, ranked 25th, could be a liability against the Tigers’ 14th-ranked bullpen, potentially making late innings interesting. However, the Reds’ recent form and home-field advantage give them a slight edge. Betting markets have Cincinnati as -125 favorites, suggesting a close game, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also anticipates a tight contest with both teams having an equal chance of winning. With both teams looking to capitalize on their opponent’s weaknesses, this game promises to be a competitive showdown.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Reese Olson’s change-up usage has spiked by 6.8% from last year to this one (15.2% to 22%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Gio Urshela – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Detroit Tigers have hit 26.8% of their balls in the air 100+ mph this year, making them the #22 club in Major League Baseball by this metric.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-135)Among all the teams today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Stuart Fairchild – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Stuart Fairchild has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 81.6-mph over the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)