Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox
(-105/-115)+125
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Houston Astros on August 11, 2024, the stakes are high. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a record of 61-54, while the Astros sit at 61-55. This matchup is crucial as the teams vie for positioning in a competitive American League.
In their most recent encounter on August 10, the Red Sox fell to the Astros by a narrow margin of 5-4. Despite the defeat, Boston boasts an impressive offense, ranking 2nd in MLB and 4th in team batting average. This potent lineup will be looking to bounce back against Houston’s solid pitching staff.
James Paxton is set to take the mound for the Red Sox. Although he has a respectable 9-3 record this season, his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression. With a Power Ranking of 239th among MLB starters, his ability to limit runs will be tested against an Astros offense that ranks 11th overall but excels with a 2nd place batting average. Paxton’s struggles with walks could be exploited by a patient Houston lineup.
On the other side, Hunter Brown, who has been performing well with a 3.98 ERA and a Power Ranking of 48th, is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs. Given his recent form and the projections favoring the Astros, this could tilt the game in Houston’s favor.
With a high Game Total of 10.5 runs expected, bettors might find value in the Red Sox’s high implied team total of 4.95 runs, which reflects their offensive capabilities. However, the projections lean towards the Astros, who are projected to score an impressive 5.83 runs. As these two teams clash at Fenway Park, fans can expect an exciting matchup filled with potential fireworks.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown will “start” for Houston Astros in today’s matchup but will server as an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple frames.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Alex Bregman has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- James Paxton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)James Paxton has used his curveball 11.1% more often this season (30.4%) than he did last year (19.3%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Ceddanne Rafaela has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 80.9-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.305 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+110)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+12.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+345/-510)Yordan Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 60% ROI)