Discover the Best Player Props for Twins vs Cubs – 8/6/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on August 6, 2024, the stakes remain high in this Interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 55-60, are having a below-average season and are looking to bounce back after suffering a 3-0 loss to the Twins just yesterday. On the other side, the Twins, boasting a 63-48 record, are enjoying a solid season and have been performing well, particularly with their pitching staff.

Shota Imanaga is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Despite a respectable Win/Loss record of 8-2 and a solid ERA of 3.09, Imanaga’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, with a higher xFIP of 3.76. His last outing was uneventful, as he allowed four earned runs over seven innings. In contrast, Pablo Lopez is set to start for the Twins. With an ERA of 4.65, Lopez’s xFIP of 3.23 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. He pitched well in his last game, going six innings with only two earned runs.

The Cubs’ offense has struggled, ranking 21st in the league, while the Twins’ lineup boasts the 5th best offense overall. This disparity could play a significant role in the game’s outcome. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with both teams expected to struggle to reach their implied team totals of just 3.00 runs.

Despite the recent loss, the Cubs have a slight edge in the projections, which favor them at 51% for this matchup, suggesting they may be undervalued by the betting markets. With Imanaga facing a high-walk offense, he could exploit the Twins’ weaknesses, making this a game to watch closely.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Recording 93.5 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Pablo Lopez places him the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Shota Imanaga meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Cody Bellinger is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 102 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 92 games (+9.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+220/-300)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+14.95 Units / 16% ROI)