Discover the Best Player Props for Padres vs D-Backs – 9/27/2024

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 27, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League West standings. The Padres, with a 91-68 record, currently hold an edge over the Diamondbacks, who boast an 88-71 record. This matchup is crucial as both teams have had strong seasons and are vying for playoff positioning.

In their most recent outings, the Diamondbacks secured a commanding 8-2 victory over the Giants, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB according to Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Padres fell to the Dodgers 7-2, but they still possess the top team batting average in MLB, highlighting their offensive prowess.

On the mound, Arizona will start Merrill Kelly, who has been solid with a 3.71 ERA this season, although his underlying metrics suggest some luck has been involved. Kelly’s last start was impressive, with five scoreless innings and six strikeouts. Yu Darvish will counter for the Padres, bringing a stellar 3.18 ERA into the game. Darvish’s recent performance saw him strike out nine over six innings, allowing just two earned runs.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been led by Corbin Carroll, while Ketel Marte has been on fire lately, batting .421 with three home runs in the past week. The Padres’ Jurickson Profar has been their standout hitter, with 24 home runs this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also been heating up, posting a .292 average and a 1.054 OPS over the last week.

The Diamondbacks are slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 51% chance to win. With both teams featuring top-tier bullpens and potent offenses, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair with playoff implications on the line.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Yu Darvish’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (64.2% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Luis Arraez’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 76.8-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Despite posting a .392 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has had positive variance on his side given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 116 games (+29.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+14.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)