Discover the Best Player Props for Padres vs D-Backs – 9/27/2024

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 27, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are eyeing crucial gains in the tight National League West race. With the Padres holding a slightly better record at 91-68 compared to the Diamondbacks’ 88-71, this matchup could significantly impact their playoff positioning. The Diamondbacks are coming off a strong 8-2 win against the Giants, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. Meanwhile, the Padres, despite boasting the league’s best team batting average, look to bounce back from a 7-2 loss to the Dodgers.

On the mound, Arizona will start Merrill Kelly, who has been solid with a 5-0 record and a respectable 3.71 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics suggest some regression might be due. The Padres counter with Yu Darvish, whose 3.18 ERA is among the league’s best, supported by an impressive recent outing with nine strikeouts in six innings against the Dodgers. While both pitchers are right-handed, it’s worth noting Darvish might have to navigate through Arizona’s home run-heavy lineup, which ranks 5th in team home runs.

The Diamondbacks’ offense is headlined by Corbin Carroll, while Ketel Marte has been on a tear recently, hitting .421 with three homers over the last week. The Padres, led by Jurickson Profar, possess significant power as well, with Fernando Tatis Jr. swinging a hot bat, evident in his .292 batting average over the past week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Diamondbacks with a 51% win probability, indicating a tight contest ahead. With both bullpens ranked in the top five, this game may come down to which starter can effectively manage a powerful opposing lineup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Yu Darvish’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (64.2% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Despite posting a .392 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has had positive variance on his side given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 116 games (+29.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+14.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+155/-200)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)