Discover the Best Player Props for Padres vs D-Backs – 9/27/2024

San Diego Padres

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are set to face off on September 27, 2024, in a crucial National League West showdown at Chase Field. With the Padres holding a slight edge in the standings at 91-68 compared to the Diamondbacks’ 88-71, both teams are having strong seasons and looking to solidify their playoff positions. This matchup is the first in a series that could significantly impact the postseason race, especially given the high stakes involved for both teams.

The Diamondbacks are coming off an impressive 8-2 victory over the San Francisco Giants, showcasing their dominance in recent play. Arizona’s offense, ranked 1st in MLB, is a force to be reckoned with, boasting the 2nd-best team batting average and 5th-most home runs. Meanwhile, the Padres, who have the 6th-best offense in MLB, lost their last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers by a score of 7-2. They lead MLB with the top team batting average, but their power numbers in terms of home runs are slightly behind, ranking 11th.

On the mound, Arizona will rely on right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has been solid this season with a 5-0 record and a 3.71 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been fortunate, as indicated by his 5.11 xERA. In contrast, the Padres will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill, who holds a 5-5 record with a 4.25 ERA. Perez also appears to have benefited from some luck, as his xERA sits at 5.21.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, favors the Diamondbacks with a 56% chance of victory, slightly above their implied win probability of 54%. Arizona’s potent lineup and home-field advantage could be decisive factors, making them a slight favorite in this tightly contested matchup. With both teams having high implied team totals, expect an exciting, high-scoring affair as the Diamondbacks and Padres battle for postseason positioning.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Martin Perez in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Luis Arraez’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 76.8-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  In terms of his home runs, Ketel Marte has been lucky this year. His 36.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 28.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 116 games (+29.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+14.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.25 Units / 48% ROI)