Discover the Best Player Props for Nationals vs D-Backs – 7/31/2024

Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals gear up for their matchup on July 31, 2024, at Chase Field, there’s a lot at stake for both teams. The D-Backs, with a 55-51 record, are having an above-average season and are keen on solidifying their playoff aspirations. On the other hand, the Nationals, sitting at 49-57, are struggling and looking to salvage some pride in what has been a below-average season.

Arizona’s offense has been a bright spot, ranking 7th in team batting average, which has been pivotal in their success. Although their power metrics are more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 16th in home runs, they have been consistent enough to pose a threat. Ketel Marte has been particularly hot, with a .429 batting average and a staggering 1.617 OPS over the last week, including 3 home runs and 9 RBIs in just 5 games. This offensive firepower will be crucial as they face the Nationals.

The D-Backs will send Zac Gallen to the mound. The right-hander has been a reliable arm for Arizona this season, and his performance will be key against a Nationals offense that ranks 18th in batting average and a dismal 29th in home runs. However, Washington does excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could put additional pressure on Gallen and the D-Backs’ defense.

Washington will counter with lefty MacKenzie Gore. While the Nationals’ offense has struggled with power, they’ve found some recent success with Juan Yepez, who has been their best hitter over the last week. Yepez has recorded 8 hits, 1 home run, and 8 RBIs in 6 games, boasting a .348 batting average and a .955 OPS.

This game marks the third in the series between these two teams. With the D-Backs’ potent offense and the Nationals’ recent struggles, Arizona appears to have the upper hand. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, supports this, giving the D-Backs a higher win probability. However, baseball is unpredictable, and the Nationals will be eager to turn the tide.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 95.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.3-mph increase from last year’s 94.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Juan Yepez’s true offensive ability to be a .304, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .090 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .394 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Compared to the average starter, Zac Gallen has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 7.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Pavin Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+13.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 97 games (+8.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 14 games (+27.10 Units / 194% ROI)