Discover the Best Player Props for Nationals vs Blue Jays – 4/2/2025

Washington Nationals

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals at Rogers Centre on April 2, 2025, both teams are eager to gain momentum in their respective seasons. The Blue Jays, currently sitting at 4-2, are enjoying a solid start, while the Nationals, at 1-4, are struggling to find their footing. In their previous matchup on April 1, the Blue Jays took the win with a score of 5-3, marking a positive trend for them as they look to build on that success.

Toronto’s Easton Lucas is set to take the mound, facing off against Washington’s MacKenzie Gore. Lucas, ranked as the 288th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a tough time this season. His projected averages are concerning; he is expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs on average, along with a high 5.1 hits. In contrast, Gore has been impressive, particularly in his last start on March 27, where he pitched 6 innings of no-hit ball with 13 strikeouts. Ranked 54th, Gore’s projections suggest a similar performance, projecting to pitch 5.4 innings with a solid 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in overall offense and 35th in home runs. However, their best hitter boasts a strong 1.241 OPS this season, which could be a key factor in today’s game. The Nationals, while struggling with a 25th overall offensive rank, have found some power, ranking 9th in home runs. Their best hitter is also performing well with a 1.297 OPS, which bodes well for their chances.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets view this matchup as closely contested, with the Blue Jays holding a slightly better moneyline of -105. This game presents an opportunity for Toronto to solidify their strong start while the Nationals aim to turn their early season woes around.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starters, MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph ranks in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Paul DeJong has a ton of pop (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (32.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Easton Lucas doesn’t generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• It may be best to expect negative regression for the Washington Nationals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Easton Lucas – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Easton Lucas to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1100/-5000)
  This year, there has been a decline in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.19 ft/sec last year to 25.26 ft/sec currently.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Toronto’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in baseball: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games at home (+16.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 46 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Davis Schneider has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+7.50 Units / 125% ROI)