Discover the Best Player Props for Cubs vs Athletics – 3/31/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Athletics

On March 31, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Chicago Cubs in an Interleague matchup at Sutter Health Park. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, both of which have had lackluster starts to the season, with the Athletics holding a record of 2-2 and the Cubs at 2-4. The Cubs are looking to bounce back after a rough outing where they lost 10-6 in their last game, while the Athletics fell to the Cubs 2-1 the previous day.

Projected starters Joey Estes and Ben Brown present an intriguing matchup. Estes, who ranks as the 331st best starting pitcher in MLB, has a challenging task ahead, particularly given his projections of 5.0 innings pitched with 2.6 earned runs allowed. His performance thus far has been less than stellar, with his last outing yielding 3 earned runs over 5 innings. On the other hand, Brown, ranked 62nd, has been more effective despite his 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.75. The projections suggest that he might improve, as his xFIP of 2.98 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season.

The Athletics’ offense, while ranking 8th in home runs, struggles overall, positioned 21st in MLB. Conversely, the Cubs’ offense ranks 13th, showcasing a more balanced attack, but they have also struggled to capitalize on power, sitting 21st in home runs. This disparity could play a crucial role in today’s matchup.

The Athletics enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, which may offer value considering they are projected to score an average of 3.90 runs, while the Cubs have a higher implied team total of 4.60 runs. With both teams looking to turn around their early-season fortunes, this game promises to be a pivotal moment in the series.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Ben Brown has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of matching up with 6 same-handed batters in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Nico Hoerner’s 1.2% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) ranks in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Joey Estes’s fastball velocity of 92.3 mph is in the 24th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  J.J. Bleday has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 88 games (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)