Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
(-125/+105)-145
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to take on the Texas Rangers on September 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a crucial series. The Mariners currently hold a record of 74-72, while the Rangers sit at 70-76. With the playoffs out of reach for the Rangers, the focus shifts to finishing the season strong, while the Mariners hope to build on their recent momentum after a solid 5-2 victory against the Padres on September 11.
Starting for the Mariners is Bryce Miller, who ranks as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB and has been performing above average this season with an impressive ERA of 3.18. In his last start on September 6, Miller showcased his skills by pitching six innings of shutout baseball, which should give Seattle fans confidence heading into this matchup. Although his projections suggest he might allow more earned runs and hits than ideal, Miller’s ability to limit damage has been evident.
Opposing him is Kumar Rocker for the Rangers, who comes in ranked 47th among starting pitchers. Rocker has had a rough go lately, projected to pitch only 4.3 innings and struggle with allowing hits and walks. With the Rangers’ offense ranked 23rd in MLB, they will need to step up, especially since their best hitter, Marcus Semien, hasn’t been able to provide consistent power this season.
Interestingly, the leading MLB projection system has the Mariners as slight favorites in this matchup, projecting them to score 3.74 runs, reflecting a low total for the game, currently set at 7.0 runs. With both teams battling offensive struggles, the Mariners will look to capitalize on their recent success and Miller’s strong pitching, hoping to secure a victory in what promises to be a tightly contested game.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kumar Rocker to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jonah Heim will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Bryce Miller in this game.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)