Seattle Mariners
Chicago White Sox
(-105/-115)+130
On July 27, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Guaranteed Rate Field in the second game of their series. The White Sox, struggling mightily this season with a 27-79 record, aim to bounce back after a season of disappointment. The Mariners, at a more respectable 54-51, find themselves in an average season but still in the mix for a playoff spot.
On the mound for the White Sox will be Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 62nd-best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. Despite his team’s poor performance, Fedde has had an excellent year with a 7-3 record and a 2.98 ERA. However, his 3.89 xFIP suggests he’s benefited from some luck and might be due for a regression. Fedde projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 6.2 batters, and conceding 4.7 hits and 1.6 walks on average today.
The Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, another right-hander, who holds the 52nd rank among MLB starters per advanced stats. Woo has an impressive 4-1 record with a 2.54 ERA this season, but his 4.06 xFIP hints at some fortunate circumstances that may not last. Projections show Woo going 5.2 innings, giving up 2.0 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and allowing 4.6 hits and 1.0 walks.
Offensively, both teams rank poorly overall. The White Sox’s offense is notably the worst in MLB, ranking 30th, with dismal standings in batting average (29th) and home runs (28th). However, they are middle-of-the-pack in stolen bases, ranking 14th. The Mariners’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 28th overall and sitting at the bottom in batting average (30th). They fare better in the power department, ranking 14th in home runs, and are 11th in stolen bases.
Bryan Woo, a high-flyball pitcher, may benefit from facing a White Sox lineup that lacks power, as they’ve struggled to hit homers. On the flip side, Woo’s low-walk rate could play into Chicago’s hands, as they are the 2nd-worst in MLB at drawing walks, potentially neutralizing his usual strength.
Despite having the home-field advantage and Erick Fedde’s above-average performance, the White Sox are underdogs with a +125 moneyline, implying a 43% chance of winning. The Mariners, favored at -150, have a 57% implied win probability. Given the stark contrasts in team performance and pitching advantages, Seattle seems poised to take this matchup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)In his previous GS, Bryan Woo performed well and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.322) suggests that Jorge Polanco has suffered from bad luck this year with his .263 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Seattle Mariners batters as a unit rank near the top of baseball this year (4th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Erick Fedde – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)Erick Fedde has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)In the past 14 days, Andrew Vaughn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+155/-200)Mitch Haniger has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+8.45 Units / 94% ROI)