Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Cubs vs Nationals – 8/30/24

Chicago Cubs

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 30, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum, albeit from different starting points. The Nationals, with a record of 61-73, have been struggling this season and are currently sitting in fourth place in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Cubs stand at 68-66, holding a slim lead in the Wild Card race, making this matchup critical for their postseason aspirations.

In their most recent outings, the Nationals snapped a losing streak by defeating the Yankees 5-2, while the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess with a high-scoring 14-10 win over the Pirates. The Nationals’ best hitter, CJ Abrams, has been a bright spot this season, contributing significantly even as the team struggles overall. In contrast, Ian Happ has been leading the Cubs’ charge, adding to his impressive season stats.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Jake Irvin, who has had a decent year with a 3.80 ERA, but ranks just 168th among MLB starters, indicating he has been less effective than his numbers suggest. Irvin’s last outing saw him allow 2 earned runs over 5 innings, but he faces a challenging Cubs lineup that has shown the ability to put up runs. Conversely, the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, who boasts a strong 3.08 ERA and ranks 75th among starters. Imanaga’s ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.0 innings per start, gives the Cubs an edge in this matchup.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, favors the Cubs, projecting them to score 4.71 runs, while the Nationals are expected to struggle with a low average of 3.74 runs. Given the Nationals’ struggles against left-handed pitching and the overall performance of both lineups, the Cubs appear poised to take advantage of their current form. With this game being the first in the series, both teams will be eager to establish an early advantage.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Shota Imanaga (41% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 4 GB hitters in Washington’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cody Bellinger has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jake Irvin’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (43.9% vs. 35.4% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  The Chicago Cubs don’t have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Jose Tena is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+135)
  The 2nd-worst projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 126 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games at home (+12.60 Units / 63% ROI)