Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-130
On August 3, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Chicago White Sox at Angel Stadium for the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels sitting at 53-58 and the White Sox at 42-69. While neither team is in contention for a playoff spot, this matchup provides an opportunity for both to build momentum. In their last game, the Angels managed to secure a narrow victory over the White Sox, which could give them a psychological edge heading into this contest.
Jack Kochanowicz is projected to take the mound for the Angels. He has had a rough season with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 5.75, ranking him as one of the lowest-performing pitchers in the league. However, his 4.90 xFIP suggests that he may have been somewhat unlucky this year. Kochanowicz projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, while his high groundball rate (54 GB%) could work in his favor against a White Sox offense that has struggled to generate power.
On the other side, Sean Burke will start for the White Sox. With a 4-8 record and a significantly better ERA of 4.17, he is still considered among the weaker pitchers in MLB, particularly given his higher xFIP of 4.92. Burke’s low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) could be a concern when facing an Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeouts.
The Angels rank 17th in MLB in offensive performance, buoyed by their power with 156 home runs (4th best). Conversely, the White Sox’s offense ranks a dismal 29th, struggling both in batting average and power. With the game total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close matchup, but the Angels’ stronger offensive capabilities and home-field advantage make them a team to watch in this contest.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)Sean Burke has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Josh Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.2-mph mark last year has fallen off to 87.1-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The 8.1% Barrel% of the Chicago White Sox makes them the #21 club in the league this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has relied on his non-fastballs 12.2% more often this year (33.7%) than he did last year (21.5%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.285) implies that Luis Rengifo has experienced some negative variance this year with his .241 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Mike Trout projects as the 13th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+160)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 70 games (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 92 games (+14.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- Gustavo Campero – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)Gustavo Campero has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)