Discover Current Player Trends for Twins vs Marlins – Wednesday July 02, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on July 2, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around. The Marlins, currently standing at 38-45, are struggling to find consistency, while the Twins are slightly ahead at 40-45, also facing challenges. In their last matchup, Miami fell short against Minnesota, raising the stakes for this second game of the series.

Marlins’ pitcher Janson Junk is projected to start, and while he holds a respectable 3.73 ERA, his 3.12 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. However, his overall ranking at #171 among MLB starters highlights that he is not among the elite. Junk has shown promise with a 2-0 record this season but has been inconsistent, allowing an average of 5.3 hits and 1.2 walks per game, both of which are concerning figures.

On the other side, the Twins will send Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound. With a 4.63 ERA this season, he’s been labeled a below-average pitcher, and his projections indicate struggles as well. He is also known for being a high-flyball pitcher, which could play into the Marlins’ hands, as they have demonstrated limited power this season with only 73 home runs, ranking 27th in MLB.

The Marlins’ offense ranks 17th overall but boasts a commendable 10th in batting average, indicating they can make contact but lack power. With Miami’s best hitter performing exceptionally well lately, recording a .429 batting average and 1.586 OPS over the last week, they may have the edge needed to capitalize against a struggling Twins pitching staff.

The game total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, reflecting the expectations for a close contest. Betting markets favor the Twins slightly, with a moneyline of -125, suggesting this matchup could be more competitive than the records indicate. Miami’s projected team total sits at 4.13 runs, while Minnesota’s is higher at 4.37 runs. As stakes rise, this game could be pivotal for both teams seeking to gain momentum.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-120)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kody Clemens has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Janson Junk is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball bats like Dane Myers are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 80% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+8.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.90 Units / 42% ROI)