Detroit Tigers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-160
As the San Diego Padres host the Detroit Tigers for the third game of their series on September 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Padres, with an impressive record of 80-61, are firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Tigers sit at an average 70-70, struggling to find their footing this season. In their last matchup on September 4, the Padres edged out the Tigers with a narrow 6-5 victory, continuing their strong performance.
On the mound, San Diego is projected to start Martin Perez, who has had a rocky season with a 4-5 record and a 4.71 ERA. However, his 5.61 xERA suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this year, raising concerns about his consistency. In contrast, Casey Mize of the Tigers has a 2-6 record with a 4.36 ERA, but his 3.76 FIP indicates he may be due for some positive regression. Both pitchers are expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, but Mize’s low strikeout rate could play into the Padres’ favor, as they rank 1st in MLB for fewest strikeouts.
Offensively, the Padres boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place ranking in team batting average. Jurickson Profar has been a standout performer this season, while Jackson Merrill has caught fire recently, leading the team in hits over the past week. The projections suggest that the Padres could score around 4.68 runs today, while the Tigers are expected to struggle with a projected total of 4.29 runs.
With a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, the Padres remain the favorites, and they will look to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a Tigers team that has struggled to find consistency at the plate.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- The Detroit Tigers have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Rogers, Parker Meadows, Ryan Kreidler, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Riley Greene).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-160)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 42 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-150)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+200/-265)Parker Meadows has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 27 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)