Discover Current Player Trends for Royals vs Astros – 9/1/24

Kansas City Royals

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Astros currently hold a record of 74-62, while the Royals sit slightly ahead at 75-62. With both teams enjoying above-average seasons, today’s matchup carries significant weight in the American League landscape.

In their last encounter on August 31, the Astros secured a 5-2 victory over the Royals, showcasing their offensive prowess. Yordan Alvarez continues to be a key player, leading the Astros with a stellar season highlighted by a .312 batting average and 28 home runs. Over the past week, he has been particularly hot, batting .435 with three home runs and ten hits in six games.

On the mound, the Astros will start Ronel Blanco, who has been solid with a 3.14 ERA this season. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, and his high walk rate of 9.8% could pose challenges against a Royals lineup that ranks 4th in the league for fewest walks taken. Blanco’s last outing was impressive, pitching six innings with only two earned runs allowed.

The Royals counter with Alec Marsh, who has struggled this season with a 4.67 ERA. Marsh is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings today, and his numbers indicate he may be vulnerable against a potent Astros offense that ranks 2nd in batting average and 9th in home runs.

Given the projections favoring the Astros, who are listed as -155 favorites, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their strong play against a Royals bullpen ranked 21st in the league. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest as both teams vie for crucial victories down the stretch.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Alec Marsh’s 2506-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 93rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Freddy Fermin has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .293 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Ronel Blanco has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Gamel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Ben Gamel is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+20.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+12.80 Units / 60% ROI)