Discover Current Player Trends for Rockies vs Mets – 5/31/25

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on May 31, 2025, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation. The Mets, currently holding a solid 35-22 record, just came off a victory against the Rockies, winning 4-2 in their last game. Meanwhile, Colorado has been struggling, sitting at a dismal 9-48 this season.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, and he’s had an impressive year so far with a 5-3 record and a stellar 1.46 ERA. His performance has landed him among the top-tier pitchers in the league, ranking 54th overall in MLB, a commendable feat considering there are around 350 pitchers. Senga’s ability to limit earned runs—projecting to allow just 2.2 today—will be key against a Rockies offense that ranks 29th overall.

On the flip side, Antonio Senzatela is slated to start for Colorado. With a troubling 1-9 record and a 6.50 ERA, he has struggled to find his rhythm this season. Despite a higher xFIP of 4.52 indicating some bad luck, his low strikeout rate of 11.2% against a Mets lineup that doesn’t strike out often (ranked 6th least in MLB) does not bode well for the Rockies.

Adding to Colorado’s woes, their offense ranks last in batting average and 29th in overall offensive production. While the Mets’ bullpen has its challenges, ranking 27th in MLB, the disparity between Senga’s strong season and Senzatela’s struggles provides New York a significant edge. With the Mets projected to score an average of 5.57 runs today, they remain a heavy favorite, making this matchup one to watch for bettors looking to capitalize on the stark contrast in team form.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Antonio Senzatela and his 47.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, bats like Mickey Moniak who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kodai Senga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 62.1% of the time, checking in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Brett Baty is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 26 away games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)