Discover Current Player Trends for Reds vs Braves – 5/5/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves

On May 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park for the first game of their series. The Braves currently sit at 15-18, struggling with a below-average season, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 18-17, maintaining an average record. Atlanta’s recent performances have been inconsistent, but they hope to gain momentum after a tough stretch.

The Braves will send AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound, who has started 4 games this year with a 1-2 record and a 4.26 ERA. While his ERA is mediocre, his 3.58 xFIP suggests he has faced some bad luck and could improve moving forward. However, Smith-Shawver’s projections indicate he is likely to pitch just 4.2 innings today, allowing around 2.2 earned runs, and striking out only 4.5 batters on average.

Opposing him will be Brady Singer for the Reds, who has been solid with a 4-1 record and an impressive 3.24 ERA over 6 starts. Singer’s ability to pitch deeper into games, with a projected 5.6 innings today, gives Cincinnati a potential edge in terms of bullpen management. Although both pitchers struggle with allowing hits and walks, Singer’s higher ranking as the 79th best starting pitcher compared to Smith-Shawver’s 233rd highlights the disparity in their effectiveness.

Offensively, the Reds boast a 10th overall ranking in MLB, while the Braves rank 14th. The Braves have shown some power but lack in stolen bases, ranking 25th. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -145 and a projected team total of 4.56 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers believe they can outscore the Reds today. As both teams look to capitalize on their strengths, this matchup promises to be an intriguing start to the series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Brady Singer has used his slider 10.5% less often this year (35%) than he did last season (45.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Santiago Espinal is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #27 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-130)
  The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Sean Murphy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+5.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+10.30 Units / 69% ROI)