Discover Current Player Trends for Red Sox vs Braves – Saturday May 31, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Boston Red Sox at Truist Park on May 31, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling with below-average records this season—26-30 for the Braves and 28-31 for the Red Sox. With neither team in contention for their division, every game holds significant weight as they aim to improve their standings.

In their previous matchup, the Braves fell short against the Red Sox, who showcased a potent offense that ranks 6th in MLB. This time, they will look to bounce back behind Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been solid this season with a 3.42 ERA and a Power Ranking of 25th among starting pitchers. Despite a Win/Loss record of 3-4, Schwellenbach has shown flashes of brilliance, projecting to allow just 2.5 earned runs and strike out 6.1 batters on average today.

On the other side, Walker Buehler takes the mound for Boston. Although he boasts a 4-2 record, his 3.95 ERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate, as evidenced by his elevated 4.46 FIP. Buehler’s projections suggest he may struggle, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs with only 4.0 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th overall, while the Red Sox’s lineup is considerably more dangerous, sitting at 6th in MLB. The Braves’ best hitter has been productive, with a .350 batting average over the last week, but they will need more support to compete against a Red Sox team that has been hitting well.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Braves favored with a moneyline of -165, the projections suggest they could be undervalued, especially given their home advantage. It’s a critical matchup for both teams as they seek to turn their seasons around.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Walker Buehler’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2.1-mph fall off from last year’s 95.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Hitters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has recorded 18.6 outs per start this year, placing in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Alex Verdugo is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)
  Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 23% ROI)