San Diego Padres
New York Mets
(+100/-120)-130
As the New York Mets prepare to face the San Diego Padres on September 17, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Mets, currently sitting at 78-73, are striving to maintain momentum after their recent 8-3 victory over the Padres, who hold an 82-69 record. This matchup is the second game in their series, and with both teams enjoying above-average seasons, it promises to be competitive.
David Peterson is slated to take the mound for the Mets. Despite being ranked 108th among MLB starting pitchers, his 3.77 ERA indicates he has been effective, although his 4.35 xERA suggests he may be due for some regression. Peterson’s ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% groundball rate) will be crucial against a Padres lineup that has struggled with power, hitting just 138 home runs this season, the 2nd least in MLB.
On the other side, Nick Pivetta is expected to start for the Padres. With an impressive 2.73 ERA and a ranking of 45th among starting pitchers, Pivetta has been a key asset for San Diego. His last outing was stellar, pitching 7 innings with no earned runs. However, his flyball tendency (43% flyball rate) could be a concern against a Mets offense that ranks 6th in home runs with 207 this season.
While the Mets have a slightly better offensive ranking (7th overall), their recent struggles at the plate against Pivetta could be a factor. The projections suggest a close contest, with the Mets having an average implied team total of 3.84 runs compared to the Padres’ 3.66. As both teams look to solidify their postseason hopes, this matchup is shaping up to be a critical one.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)In his last start, Nick Pivetta performed well and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.2% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Compared to the average pitcher, David Peterson has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.3 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Pete Alonso has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York’s 90.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #2 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 away games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)