Discover Current Player Trends for Orioles vs Marlins – 7/23/24

Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park on July 23, 2024, the dynamics in play offer interesting insights for bettors. The Orioles, boasting an impressive 60-39 record, are having a fantastic season, contrasting sharply with the Marlins’ 35-65 record, which places them near the bottom of the standings.

On the mound for the Marlins will be right-hander Kyle Tyler, who has struggled this season. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks him as the 287th-best starting pitcher out of roughly 350. Despite sporting a 3.38 ERA, Tyler’s 4.90 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate thus far and may regress. He projects to pitch just 4.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and a concerning 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks per start.

The Orioles counter with Albert Suarez, another right-hander. He has a stellar ERA of 2.82###102, though his 4.69 xFIP implies similar luck to Tyler’s. Suarez is expected to go 5.2 innings, giving up 2.7 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.5 walks.

Offensively, the gap between the two teams is significant. The Marlins have struggled, ranking 29th in overall offense, 23rd in batting average, and dead last in home runs. However, their bullpen, ranked 10th by Power Rankings, has been a bright spot. In contrast, the Orioles boast the 2nd-best offense, leading MLB in home runs and ranking 8th in batting average. Their bullpen, ranked 17th, has been average but gets the job done.

Jake Burger has been a highlight for the Marlins, hitting .333 with 2 home runs and a 1.278 OPS over the last week. On the other hand, the Orioles’ lineup continues to be a consistent threat, capitalizing on their power.

Betting markets heavily favor the Orioles with a moneyline of -170, reflecting a 61% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X projects this game to be closer than expected, giving the Marlins a 46% win probability, which is 7% higher than the betting market suggests. This disparity indicates potential value in betting on the Marlins, as sportsbooks might be undervaluing their chances due to their poor season performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-170)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Miami’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank near the top of Major League Baseball this year (2nd-) when it comes to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Kyle Tyler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Kyle Tyler has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  In the last 7 days, Josh Bell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In today’s game, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.1% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+12.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 96 games (+16.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 64% ROI)