Discover Current Player Trends for Nationals vs Blue Jays – Tuesday April 01, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on April 1, 2025, they look to build on their strong start to the season. Currently, the Blue Jays sit at 3-2, whereas the Nationals have struggled, holding a 1-3 record. This matchup marks the second game of the series, following a disappointing performance for Washington in yesterday’s game.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Jose Berrios, who has had a rough start to the season with an 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 10.80. Despite being ranked as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced projections suggest that Berrios has been unlucky, with an xFIP of 5.01 indicating he might improve. However, he faces a potent Nationals offense that ranks 5th in the league with 8 home runs, which could capitalize on his high flyball rate of 47 FB%.

On the other side, Trevor Williams is set to take the mound for Washington. Like Berrios, Williams has struggled, projecting to pitch only 4.7 innings with a below-average strikeout rate. With both pitchers being right-handed, the matchup could tilt in favor of the Blue Jays, who possess a slightly better offense ranked 16th in MLB, despite their low home run and stolen base counts.

While the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks an average 18th, the Nationals’ bullpen is considerably weaker at 27th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game, especially given Toronto’s implied team total of 4.70 runs compared to Washington’s 3.80. With the pressure on the Nationals to turn their season around, this game presents a critical opportunity for the Blue Jays to extend their winning ways.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Considering that flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Trevor Williams and his 35.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this matchup facing 1 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Toronto (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the league since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Since the start of last season, Andres Gimenez’s 2.9% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 7th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in MLB: #25 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-120/-110)
  Jose Berrios has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.40 Units / 53% ROI)