Discover Current Player Trends for Mets vs Phillies – 9/10/25

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

On September 10, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup in the National League East. The Phillies enter the game with an impressive 85-60 record, positioning themselves well for postseason contention. In contrast, the Mets sit at 76-69, having played well but not at the same level as their division rivals. In their last game, the Phillies emerged victorious against the Mets, continuing their strong push as they look to solidify their playoff standing.

Projected starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has been a standout for the Phillies this season, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. With a stellar 2.60 ERA and a 12-5 record, Sanchez has showcased elite performance, especially with his ability to induce ground balls at a 58% rate. This will be crucial against a Mets lineup that, while powerful, has struck out frequently this season. Sanchez’s control, evidenced by a low walk rate of 5.9%, may help neutralize the Mets’ patient approach at the plate.

On the mound for the Mets is Clay Holmes, who has had a solid but not elite season, sitting at 52nd in MLB rankings with a 3.61 ERA. Despite his respectable numbers, Holmes has faced challenges, particularly with a higher than average xFIP of 4.20, suggesting he may have benefited from favorable conditions this season. He projects to pitch just 5.0 innings on average today, a concerning statistic for New York as they face a potent Phillies offense that ranks 6th best in MLB and 3rd in batting average.

With the game total set at 7.5 runs and the Phillies favored with a moneyline of -170, bettors should look closely at how Sanchez’s commanding presence on the mound can shape the outcome against a Mets offense that needs to capitalize on every opportunity.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  In his last game started, Clay Holmes was on point and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Starling Marte has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 76.1-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Cristopher Sanchez is an extreme groundball pitcher (55.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #7 HR venue among all stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Donovan Walton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (2.9) provides evidence that Donovan Walton has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 24.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 100 games (+19.06 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-200)
  Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)